Fictional Exercise Scenario
Major Events Timeline — SPOKARS-24
September 26, 2024
AUSA nursing home in Kelvin Grove transfers two patients (79 and 86 y/o) to Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital with pneumonia. Three more patients develop ILI symptoms over the following days.
September 30
AUSQueensland Health activates a rapid response team, implements strict isolation, and begins contact tracing. By Oct 3, 9 more nursing home patients (all 75+) and one caregiver (51 y/o) are hospitalized.
October 4
AUSAustralian government escalates the alert. Labs conduct urgent pathogen identification. Hospitals receive alerts to monitor and report similar cases.
October 5
AUSChildren Health Queensland Hospital notifies a family cluster (4, 12 y/o and parent). The 12-year-old has atypical pneumonia. 100 contacts traced. Nine more nursing home patients and one more caregiver hospitalized.
October 6
WHOQueensland CHO convenes a meeting with Metro North HHS, Queensland Health, and CDNA. AHPPC briefed. Australia's NFP directly notifies WHO WPRO in Manila.
October 7
AUSWHOFirst two deaths reported (nursing home patients, aged 82 and 84, with comorbidities). WHO issues first official alert.
October 10
AUSOne more death (78 y/o, nursing home). Australian Government issues a Public Health Advisory.
October 13
AUSQueensland CHO announces 25 new suspected cases across 5 Brisbane hospitals. Two cases in children (1 and 3 y/o) — severe. One additional nursing home death.
October 14
AUS7 suspected cases positive for flu (dropped). 13 new suspected hospitalizations. First suspected case in Townsville (travel from Brisbane). Contact tracing on flight manifest initiated.
October 16
SCIENCEGenetic identification of virus X by the Doherty lab via meta-sequencing. Sequence published on GenBank (Oct 17). WHO provides revised advisory.
October 20
AUS85 total hospitalizations (75 Brisbane, 8 Sydney, 1 Townsville, 1 Rockhampton). 7 suspected deaths (including 2 pediatric). Evidence of sustained H2H transmission. WHOCausative agent formally identified as SPOK-24.
October 22
SCIENCEPCR primers for SPOK-24 developed by the Doherty lab.
October 25
WHOWHO issues first situation report. First paper published on clinical features and outcomes of first 70 patients.
October 29
SCIENCEPaper on early transmission dynamics published. WHOSecond situation report (Week 43).
November 4
WHOThird situation report (Week 44). SPOK-24 cases detected in several countries (travel-related from Australia).
November 12
WHOFourth situation report (Week 45). WHO declares PHEIC. Australian Government issues new advisory.
November 13
WHOOfficial naming: Virus = Spooky-like Virus 2024 (SPOK-24). Disease = SPOKARS-24.
November 15
AUSAustralia begins providing daily and weekly hospitalization and case timelines.
November 23
GLOBALVietnam reports anomalous hospitalization increase; non-travel SPOK-24 cases confirmed. South Korea confirms three independent clusters in Seoul (no travel history).
November 30
GLOBALJapan confirms 12 SPOK-24 hospitalizations. USCDC TGS program detects SPOK-24 in wastewater at Los Angeles and San Francisco airports.
December 7
US4 hospitalizations in San Francisco (Alameda Co.) and 4 in Seattle (King Co.). GLOBALSingapore and Thailand report autochthonous infections (~12 and ~20 hospitalizations respectively).
December 14
GLOBALVietnam: 15 cumulative deaths. South Korea: 8 cumulative deaths (likely underestimated). US removes travel-history requirement for testing. WHO recommends testing all respiratory patients. Widespread diagnostic shortages reported globally.
December 25
USSPOK-24 hospitalization in NYC. Cases detected across multiple states; diagnostic shortages and ILI overlap complicate surveillance. GLOBALFrance (Paris) and UK (Manchester, London, Glasgow) report hospitalizations and begin regular reporting.
January 1, 2025
USIncreasing cases and hospitalizations. CDC confirms 5th US death. GLOBALDeaths confirmed in Vietnam, Japan, South Korea. Australia cases appear to slow.
January 7
SCIENCEFirst paper on SPOK-24 severity assessment published.
January 15
USCDC publishes weekly state-level cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (back to Nov 30). GLOBALSeveral countries start providing regular SPOK-24 death updates. Australia hospitalizations appear to plateau.
January 18
AUSAustralia releases weekly fatality time series by date of death (Oct 15 – Dec 28).
January 10
GLOBALSeveral countries are discussing additional travel restrictions to and from nations with strong evidence of local widespread transmission, including China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. Negotiations are ongoing at both bilateral and multilateral level. The WHO reiterates that blanket travel bans are not recommended but supports enhanced screening of travelers from affected areas.
January 15
AUSIn Australia, the apparent slowdown in epidemic activity is fueling public debate. Several business groups, state officials, and civic movements are advocating for the lifting of travel restrictions and other mitigation measures, citing the declining hospitalization trend, economic damage, and the need to resume normal operations. Public health officials urge caution, noting that the plateau may reflect testing saturation rather than a genuine decline in transmission.
January 18
GLOBALThe situation in South Korea and Japan is rapidly evolving. Both countries are reporting large numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, although official confirmation of cases and deaths remains problematic due to severe shortages in testing capacity and reagent supplies. Reporting delays of up to two weeks are being observed in both countries, making real-time situational assessment extremely difficult. WHO urges both nations to prioritize syndromic surveillance as a complement to laboratory-confirmed reporting.
January 18
MEDIAThe New York Times publishes an interactive narrative on the first 100 days of the SPOKARS-24 outbreak, tracing the epidemic from a Brisbane nursing home to a global emergency.
Read the full narrative →